The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) construction has been a subject of dispute for the past ten years. Still, in recent months, the tensions have been escalating, threatening the region’s stability.
As Egypt sources around ninety per cent of its water from the Blue Nile, it fears that the project will negatively affect the access to resources and the livelihood of its people. For Ethiopia, on the other hand, the dam will be an invaluable electricity generator. It will give all Ethiopians access to power and benefit the neighbouring countries also struggling with energy deficits.
Currently, dam filling and operating is unregulated. That means that once the construction is finished, Ethiopia will be able to control the flow of the Nile River as it pleases and decide how much water upstream countries receive. In an attempt to change that, Egypt has repeatedly called upon the international community to help the nations develop and reach a legally binding agreement that would control how the dam is managed.
The African Union (AU) has been the primary mediator between the parties, but the US has also gotten involved. It encouraged Egypt and Ethiopia to ‘come together and resolve their disputes around the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam and their shared water resources’, said Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor. Sadly, thus far the attempts to settle the disagreement have not been successful.
As the project continues without an Ethiopian-Egyptian agreement in place, with Sudan increasingly involved, many fear that the conflict will soon escalate and turn into a full-blown war.
At first glance, it seems like Sudan should stand by the construction of GERD as, thanks to it, annual floods that happen during the wet season could be prevented. The river flow can be regulated using the dam and can be kept the same all year round. Nevertheless, Sudan worries that the project could decrease its water shares. Hence, lately, the country has been supporting Egypt in trying to make Ethiopia adhere to international laws and coordinate the dam construction better.
On May 26, ‘the ground, naval, and air forces of Egypt and Sudan began a joint military exercise’, Al-Monitor reported. The goal was to enhance the two countries’ combat preparedness and boost the cooperation between them.
Deputy chief-of-staff of the Sudanese army, Abdallah al-Bashir, claimed that the exercise was not related to the GERD. In reality, however, it served to intimidate Ethiopia and show that Egypt and Sudan are capable of defending themselves if anyone threatened them.
In early May, after Ethiopia began the second phase of filling the reservoir behind the dam, Egypt declared that if its water resources are negatively affected, it will not hesitate to use force.
The conflict over water shares of the Nile river has persisted for many years. Nevertheless, as climate change is causing the scarcity of resources in the region, countries that rely on the Nile for water cannot afford to lose any of their water allocations. Hence, the dispute is escalating at a faster pace than ever before.
Each week Ethiopia is getting closer to fulfilling its ambition of building the massive dam. Still, neither of the sides of the conflict is willing to retreat, and Egypt, supported by Sudan, threatens to undertake more concrete actions against Ethiopia. It also aims to mobilise other African countries to take a stand against its adversary. In April, ‘Egypt signed military intelligence-sharing agreements with Uganda and Burundi’, revealed The Africa Report.
For now, Egypt is only presenting a pro armed conflict rhetoric to scare Ethiopia and force it to rethink the project. The dam construction became a political issue, however, and with a resource as vital as water at stake, Egypt could resort to military action any day.